Turkey's Real Estate Payback Period Plummets as Market Roars

The investment return on Turkish real estate has seen a dramatic acceleration. Over the past five years, the average national payback period has been nearly halved, plummeting from 23–24 years to a swift 13 years. This remarkable shift is a direct consequence of an unprecedented surge in both property values and rental rates.

A Market in Overdrive

The Turkish real estate market roared through the first half of 2025, with sales volumes increasing by 15.6% compared to the previous year. While the Turkish Central Bank’s Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) for June 2025 recorded a hefty 32.8% annual nominal increase, a closer look reveals that real prices (adjusted for inflation) saw a modest 1.7% annual decrease, a testament to Turkey’s unique economic landscape.

Rapid Returns Across Urban Hubs

This dynamic is most pronounced in the country's major metropolitan areas, where payback periods have contracted significantly. As of June 2025, the RPPI highlighted robust annual nominal price growth in:

Ankara: A staggering 42.1%

Istanbul: A strong 32.7%

Izmir: A solid 31.8%

Muğla Leads as Property and Rental Prices Reach New Heights

The market's momentum is vividly captured in the latest price data for August 2025. Muğla, a coastal paradise, has solidified its position as the country's most expensive region for property, commanding a premium price per square meter of approximately 65,547 TL.

The average prices per square meter in other key regions are also at new peaks:

Istanbul: Averaging 61,000 TL.

Izmir: At roughly 45,000 TL.

Antalya: Standing at approximately 42,000 TL.

Impact on Citizenship-by-Investment

The booming real estate market directly affects Turkey’s citizenship-by-investment program. As of August 2025, the minimum investment amount remains at $400,000 USD in property. The rapid increase in property values means that investors are now more likely to purchase a single, higher-value property that meets the threshold, rather than multiple smaller ones. This trend, combined with the shortened payback periods, makes the program an even more compelling option for foreign investors seeking both a passport and a strong financial return.

Expert Analysis

Berk Ünsal, a market expert from the Industrial Development Bank of Turkey, attributes this trend to relentless demand, particularly from investors drawn to coastal and central districts. He notes that while high mortgage rates (over 40% since 2023) have slightly tempered the market's pace, the real estate sector remains one of the world's most vibrant, successfully navigating a complex economic environment of high inflation and interest rates.